Boston Focus, 11.22.24

Some things I have read through recently...

The extended teacher strikes in Beverly, Gloucester, and Marblehead are garnering national attention.

Like any other lengthy political fight, there is no shortage of takes and tropes.  Is this a sign of continued union ascendancy, or is public opinion turning?  What factors - such as special education - are creating the budget crunch?  The inevitable tie-in to Boston teachers. Late night press conferences. A State House rally.  

In spite of their illegality and regardless of one’s approval or disapproval of the tactic, one thing is certain: these strikes are continuing and we will see more. Why?

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Teachers benefit.  

Teacher pay in the three North Shore communities - and how much it has grown over time - is central to the impasse. 

Individual teachers have virtually no financial incentive to concede.

Let’s use one of the towns to demonstrate this principle.  

Beverly has offered an average 24% salary increase to its current scale (page 36), equalling $19,140 over three years.  But that potential ~$6,400 annual raise is actually worth much more.

Imagine a 62-year old teacher in Beverly, three years from retirement.  This new contract would dramatically increase the last, best three years of their compensation, which is used to calculate their pension.  Even without cost of living adjustments, this proposal would dramatically increase the teacher’s annual retirement earnings.

Assuming a nice, healthy life expectancy, the value of the proposed contract increase is actually hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Yes, striking teachers are foregoing wages and courting social awkwardness at the local grocery store, but there is a significant financial benefit on the other side.  

Many people would accept that trade-off.  

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Teachers bear costs much smaller than the benefits.

Given that these strikes are illegal, fines are often levied - or retracted - to incentivize striking teachers to settle.

But to pay those fines, teachers don’t reach into their wallets today; the bill is covered by dues they have paid in the past, which fund their local associations.  And, if those associations are strained by fines, the parent union - the Massachusetts Teachers Association - offers a backstop of ~$123M in net assets.   Go Fund Me sites even pop up.

With larger fines, striking teachers may see an increase in dues or a small number may even be laid off due to budget issues.

But these costs have not been deemed big enough to dissuade teachers from electing to strike.

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Strikes work.

Recent teacher strikes in Brookline, Malden, Haverhill, Andover, Woburn, and Newton all ended in essentially the same fashion: an agreement which met most of the teachers’ demands, including increased compensation.

This tracks with research that indicates that US teacher strikes increase teacher compensation and per-pupil spending.

Research also indicates most American teacher strikes do not negatively impact student achievement, although some international studies imply longer strikes do.

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Big benefits, low costs, and a high chance of success. With these clear incentives, a majority of polled Massachusetts voters supporting teachers’ right to strike, and budget pressures, there is simply no reason for North Shore teachers - or any other Massachusetts teachers in contract negotiations - to settle.

Schools

The Boston School Committee wrapped up a retreat with a second meeting (materials here).  The action around Boston School Committee happened in a different set of meetings, as applicants were interviewed for a potential open School Committee seat. Agendas were posted (here and here), but no materials or minutes available yet.

The state Board of Elementary and Secondary Education (BESE) had a lot more official business last week (materials for the three meetings here): back-and-forth around vocational school admissions policies, the conclusion of the Holyoke receivership, and discussing the elimination of the MCAS high school graduation requirement (I testified at 27:20).

Massachusetts is not alone in rolling back assessment requirements. There is a clear post-pandemic trend amongst states, including New York.  Without clarity on what the Legislature will do or the purview of BESE, it is unclear what a “reset” would look like on graduation requirements.

The state’s $4B economic development bill has a lot in it, including new legislation regarding teacher diversity.

High-dosage literacy tutoring in Chelsea.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, American schools do not lag in how many hours of instruction children receive.

Boston is the tenth most expensive place to raise children in America.  The labor dynamics of early childhood care is not helping.

Higher education may be the noisiest education policy space in the coming years.  While data show that more kids than ever are being accepted by colleges and universities, one local liberal arts college continues to draw much of its students from a handful of schools.

International student higher education enrollment continues to increase and buffer bottom lines with full tuition payments.  But could that - along with other culture war topics - be disrupted by the Trump administration and its nominee for Secretary of Education?

Other Matters

After testimony earlier this week from Mayor Wu, Boston’s proposal to temporarily increase commercial tax rates is now on hold at the Legislature.

Speaking of revenue, Evan Horowitz provides a rarely non-partisan analysis of Massachusetts millionaire tax.

One of the big questions regarding that policy is effect on residency.  More wealthier Massachusetts residents are moving out of the Bay State, a new report shows.

Longtime readers know I follow school cadences, so no post next Friday morning. Have a nice Thanksgiving.