Boston Focus, 9.5.25

Bet on it: online gambling is doing little for classrooms while coming for the kids, too

This week, a record number of ballot questions were certified by the Attorney General Full list here and good summary of the major issues here (housing, taxes, and elections are dominant topics).

Naturally not all 44 will make it to the 2026 ballot; signature counts, compromises, and politics will winnow down the group.

Originally conceived as a populist check on stagnant legislatures, I doubt past reformers imagined a day when one California millionaire would be responsible for ending bilingual education in Massachusetts or multiple out-of-state organizations and individuals would try to legalize magic mushrooms here last year.

Most voters probably don’t hold a governance theory underpinning ballot initiatives. Most voters probably like them when they agree with a result, and vice versa.

What is definitely true about ballot initiatives is that they are here to stay and topics and questions tend to recycle. After a long break, rent control is probably back. You can bank on a tax question of some sort almost every four years. Efforts to alter Massachusetts election structures failed in 2020, but will likely return for 2026.

It is time to see gambling back on the list. Although the repeal of 2011 casino law lost at the ballot in 2014, it signaled a tide in public support and augured market saturation. Only 3 more full-fledged casinos have opened thereafter, with no site still in southeastern Massachusetts. The data makes it very hard to claim Massachusetts casinos were a winner.

Of course, no one needs to go to a casino in Massachusetts to gamble now.

The first day of school in Boston fell on the same day as Cowboys vs. Eagles, a kickoff not for the NFL, but for the real sports betting season.

Business is booming.

With ~$4.4B in wagers through July and the remaining heavy betting months of the fall, it is likely 2025 will well surpass 2024 levels.

Not content with those profits, a state audit has revealed that lax regulatory oversight resulted in online gambling companies targeting children.

Proponents like to wrap their arguments in the virtue of local aid, that the proceeds of gambling actually find their way to Massachusetts classrooms and students. Even if every tax dollar collected in 2024 went to local public schools, it would have increased Massachusetts public school investment by about a half a penny on the dollar.

I could write a longer piece on the paltry ROI for legalized online gambling given the industry’s high-profit margins, minimal job creation, relatively low tax revenue creation, and the microeconomic havoc it unleashes on individuals and families. And, if we are being honest with ourselves, the lottery is not much better.

Instead, I will remind readers that preying on minors proved to be a line in the sand for cigarettes and vaping, followed by intense regulation, higher taxation, and lower rates of usage.

Costing powerful and profitable industries money and eliminating revenue streams don’t typically top legislature’s to-do lists. So if the data does prove out that online sports betting is a bad deal, advocates and voters should consider making online gambling go the way of the greyhound race.

Schools

In addition to the typical door-to-door truancy visits and jam-packed school visit schedule, the first day for Boston Public Schools (BPS) featured Mayor Wu and Superintendent Skipper providing an extensive press conference on a range of topics.

Inevitably, President Trump found his way into the chat, with a discussion of ICE and the Mayor even projecting further enrollment decline due to deportation threats.

Past data supports this. The pandemic accelerated BPS enrollment loss, but its start coincided with the first Trump administration.

Historically it takes a few days to assess transportation performance; in the meantime, BPS will be reviewing this bus safety report.

Expect more events and discussion of BPS facilities in the coming weeks; driving around the city, you can see some work is still being finished.

Don’t expect more information about the largest BPS facilities project, White Stadium, without public records being released.

Massachusetts launched its early literacy tutoring program.

A new poll of Massachusetts 18-29 year-olds shows support for uniform graduation standards and mixed feelings about preparation for college and career.

AI and cell phone policies seemed to pop up in most back-to-school stories.

Harvard won some of its money back from the federal government; now let’s see them collect it.